An article in the journal Nature Communications predicts that the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could come as early as 2027, which would be the first visible transition from a white Arctic Ocean to a predominantly blue body of water during the summer. Conditions for an ice-free Arctic Ocean arise when there are less than 1 million square kilometers of ice. While other studies have estimated that the mean ice cover may be less than 1 million square kilometers by September 2050, this research was focused on determining when the first day might occur.

To make their prediction, the scientists used climate models that simulate trends in global temperatures and Arctic sea ice concentrations. They warn that the only way to avoid an ice-free day within this decade is to cut emissions fast enough to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. An ice-free Arctic Ocean in the summer is expected to warm the upper ocean and accelerate climate change. Such a change could induce more extreme weather events around the globe and negatively impact the Arctic ecosystem, from zooplankton to the polar bear.